Pena Nieto

As recently as October 2016, Mexico’s ambassador was confident Donald Trump would not be elected president. “It’s not going to happen,” Miguel Basañez told me at the time. But it did happen — and Mexico’s hope that it could work with Canada to present a united front against the Trump administration came undone when Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau was informed that Trump would work out “a bilateral agreement” with Canada alone to salvage the mutual benefits both countries derived from NAFTA.

When Donald Trump invited Carlos Slim, one the world’s richest men and the single-largest investor in the New York Times, to dinner at his Palm Beach estate, Mar-a-Lago, it became clear that Trump’s admiration for Mexican “leaders” meant businessmen, not politicians. “What President-elect Trump wants to do in coming closer to the Mexican business community has an impact, not only nationally but regionally with Latin America, and opens the doors for good business relations overall,” said Larry Rubin, president of the American Society of Mexico. 

As immigrants rally in cities across the United States today, another drumbeat of protest and revolt beats loudly in southern Mexico. Beginning as a teachers’ strike against a new federal education law last February, the protest is now transforming into a broad popular movement against not only the much-touted Pact for Mexico policies of new President Enrique Pena Nieto, but also the political and economic structures they are based on.

In the wake of Mexico’s presidential election Sunday, analysts are expecting Mexico to launch a major “blitzkrieg surge” against the drug cartels during current president Felipe Calderon’s lame duck period. President-elect Enrique Peña Nieto won’t take office until Dec. 1, leaving a five-month period during which Mexico is expected to intensify its drive against the drug cartels.

With only three weeks of campaigning to go before Mexicans elect a new president, López Obrador – known in Mexico by his initials, AMLO – has moved into a statistical tie for first place with Peña Nieto. The political resurrection of AMLO has stunned observers, with the prospect of a leftist government being elected in Mexico now a real possibility.

Thousands of university students took to the streets of Mexico City Wednesday demanding greater freedom of speech in the country and protesting the PRI’s possible return to power. It was the third-largest student protest in less than a week, and it has prompted some journalists in the country to wonder if Mexico is going through a political transformation similar to the “Arab Spring."