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Anyone paying serious attention to the Academy Awards knows that – despite the hype and pretension – Oscars don’t always land in the right hands. Rather, variables as diverse as marketing and politics factor into the outcomes.
Don’t take this to mean Oscar winners are never deserving. Each category is always packed with excellent contenders, and it is an honor just to be nominated. In truth, art is not a competition that can (or should) be judged in the same manner as athletics. We can enjoy great movies without debating whether the exquisite weirdness of Bugonia trumps the dramatic intensity of Marty Supreme.
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But … where’s the fun in that? The fact that one performance or project can never be objectively better than another doesn’t stop us from weighing in. So, I humbly submit my picks for who should (not necessarily who will) win the Academy Awards in several major categories.
Best Supporting Actor
The nominees: Benicio del Toro (One Battle After Another); Jacob Elordi (Frankenstein); Delroy Lindo (Sinners); Sean Penn (One Battle After Another); Stellan Skarsgård (Sentimental Value)
Should win: In a field packed with nuanced and powerful work, I am convinced two actors created roles that will be remembered for generations: Elordi (with a soulful reading of Victor Frankenstein’s famous creature) and Penn (as an antagonist so deliciously fleshed out that even his posture speaks volumes).
Of these two, my pick is Penn. While Elordi offered an inspiring twist on a well-known character, Penn built Steven J. Lockjaw – an arrogant military officer – from scratch. In One Battle After Another, Lockjaw drifts from imposing to preposterous so seamlessly that it reminds me of George C. Scott’s iconic performance in Dr. Strangelove. That is work deserving of an Oscar.
Best Supporting Actress
The nominees: Elle Fanning (Sentimental Value); Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas (Sentimental Value); Amy Madigan (Weapons); Wunmi Mosaku (Sinners); Teyana Taylor (One Battle After Another)
Should win: This category is also filled with distinctive, powerful performances, but it’s Teyana Taylor’s portrayal of a militant social justice warrior that I found most memorable. She demands attention every moment she’s in frame -- even when playing across from the generational talents of Leonardo DiCaprio and Sean Penn. If you are upstaging Oscar winners, you deserve one of your own.
Best Actor
The nominees: Timothée Chalamet (Marty Supreme); Leonardo DiCaprio (One Battle After Another); Ethan Hawke (Blue Moon); Michael B. Jordan (Sinners); Wagner Moura (The Secret Agent)
Should win: This category has me more conflicted than any other. For a long while, I was convinced Michael B. Jordan should receive the award for his remarkable portrayal of twin brothers Smoke and Stack in the vampire film Sinners. Then, I watched Ethan Hawke completely disappear into the role of Lorenz Hart in director Richard Linklater’s dramedy Blue Moon. If I’m being honest, this one came down to a mental coin toss because both actors are SO good. Alas, a coin lands on one side, and mine eventually tipped in favor of Hawke. Here’s hoping his fifth nomination leads to a much-deserved win.
Best Actress
The nominees: Jessie Buckley (Hamnet); Rose Byrne (If I Had Legs I’d Kick You); Kate Hudson (Song Sung Blue); Renate Reinsve (Sentimental Value); Emma Stone (Bugonia)
Should win: As Emma Stone has matured as an actress, she’s taken increasingly curious and challenging roles, and her portrayal of a kidnapped CEO in Bugonia ticks both of those boxes. The role required a powerful physical performance and a wide range of emotion. Stone met the challenge with aplomb, and she delivered one of the most interesting characters to hit screens in 2026. Again, all the contenders are impressive, but I’m betting Stone’s work is discussed well into the future.
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Best Director
The nominees: Chloé Zhao (Hamnet); Josh Safdie (Marty Supreme); Paul Thomas Anderson (One Battle After Another); Joachim Trier (Sentimental Value); Ryan Coogler (Sinners)
Should win: Each movie is fascinating in different ways, making a qualitative comparison difficult. I believe all these movies will stand the test of time, as it’s easy to imagine future film scholars dissecting them based on thematic content and their representation of mid-2010s filmmaking.
That said, my pick is Ryan Coogler. Although most horror films pack a message, the genre is littered with simplistic fare designed to serve the lowest common denominator. With Sinners, Coogler made a horror film dressed in the trappings of a period drama. It is packed with representational nuance. It is entertaining and deeply meaningful. It features Michael B. Jordan in a stunning dual performance, and that presented technical challenges. That’s a lot for a director to handle. Coogler delivered.
Best Picture
The nominees: Bugonia; F1; Frankenstein; Hamnet; Marty Supreme; One Battle After Another; The Secret Agent; Sentimental Value; Sinners; Train Dreams
Should win: Anyone who read the top movies of 2026 article I published in late December knows F1 and Sinners are the only nominees that made my cut. You wouldn’t know One Battle After Another was close and has continued to grow on me. One thing you learn after years as a film critic is that your initial impressions aren’t always your final impressions. Some movies hit hard the first time. Others worm their way into your brain, slowly begging you to return for another look. Interestingly, it’s the latter pictures that often have the most impact.
I maintain that F1 is the most entertaining of this year’s Oscar nominees. Simply looking for a good time at the movies? That film gets my vote. That said, I don’t believe it will be the best-remembered picture in this crop. If one is seeking artistic importance and weighty representational value, look to Sinners and One Battle After Another. Both are incredible films, but the one that begs for another look every time I write about the Oscars is the latter.
With One Battle After Another, director Paul Thomas Anderson and his extraordinary cast made a satirical drama that is as funny as it is substantial. It features characters that are memorably over-the-top yet infused with an honesty that makes them relatable. The movie is an odd creation in a delightful way, and the fact that it’s still nagging at me months after the first viewing means it is the most substantive of an excellent grouping.
Author Bio:
Forrest Hartman is the chief film critic for Highbrow Magazine.
For Highbrow Magazine