I used to love writing “will win/should win” Oscar stories, as they allowed me to prove that years of covering film has made me an expert at reading cinematic tarot cards. But the last decade has brought enormous change to the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences, including scores of new members added in the interest of diversity.
Culturally, this can be applauded, but it has made predictions more and more difficult. Because there is significant overlap between Academy voters and membership in film industry guilds, paying attention to awards from the Directors Guild of America, Producers Guild of America and Screen Actors Guild helps, but these organizations no longer mark the cards as obviously. That said, I’m no quitter, so here are the films that I believe will win (and should win) American cinema’s most coveted prize.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
The nominees: Monica Barbaro, A Complete Unknown; Ariana Grande, Wicked; Felicity Jones, The Brutalist; Isabella Rossellini, Conclave; Zoe Saldaña, Emilia Pérez
Should win: Monica Barbaro
Reasoning: A Complete Unknown is ostensibly about Bob Dylan, but the film doesn’t work without nods to other folk greats, especially Joan Baez (Barbaro). The movie’s portrayal of Dylan isn’t as much about historical authenticity as capturing the spirit of the enigmatic man. Barbaro helps immeasurably by demonstrating the depth of connection Baez had in her hot-cold relationship with the fellow folk icon. Her performance is authentic, believable and nuanced.
Will win: Zoe Saldaña
Reasoning: Only three of these nominees also received nods from the Screen Actors Guild. Since actors are the largest single branch of the Academy, that tells me the two outliers are long shots, leaving us with Barbaro, Grande and Saldaña. Of those three, it’s Saldaña who has received most of the buzz so far. A vote for her gives voters a chance to honor a film they liked without embracing the controversy created by Saldaña’s co-star, Karla Sofía Gascón.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
The nominees: Yura Borisov, Anora; Kieran Culkin, A Real Pain; Edward Norton, A Complete Unknown; Guy Pearce, The Brutalist; Jeremy Strong, The Apprentice
Should win: Kieran Culkan
Reasoning: Simply put, Culkin’s portrayal of an outgoing and charismatic – yet often painfully rude – man is the heart of the odd-couple dramedy A Real Pain. Writer-director and costar Jesse Eisenberg deserves at least as much credit as Culkin, but the latter has the flashiest role, and he leaned into it. Culkin swerves between brash and bombastic to surprisingly forlorn, and it is a truly brilliant performance.
Will win: Kieran Culkin
Reasoning: Culkin won the Critics Choice Award, Golden Globe and SAG Award in this category, and he has all the momentum.
BEST ACTRESS
The nominees: Cynthia Erivo, Wicked; Karla Sofía Gascón, Emilia Pérez; Mikey Madison, Anora; Demi Moore, The Substance; Fernande Torres, I’m Still Here
Should win: Cynthia Erivo, Wicked
Reasoning: Erivo played every scene in Wicked with a sharp green complexion, but it’s other performers who should be sporting the envious, green aura. Her acting is crisp; her voice is beautiful; and she did exactly what the role of Elphaba demands. The plotting of this story doesn’t work unless the Wicked Witch of the West transitions from Wizard of Oz villain to sympathetic lead, and Erivo woos viewers with seeming ease.
Will win: Demi Moore, The Substance
Reasoning: Controversy surrounding Karla Sofía Gascón’s past political statements has all but eliminated her from consideration, and Fernande Torres didn’t even get a nod from the Screen Actors Guild. That leaves us with three serious contenders. My guess is that Demi Moore will be rewarded for her lengthy history in the industry, as well as a performance that emphasizes the difficulties that aging actresses face in a field that overvalues youth.
BEST ACTOR
The nominees: Adrien Brody, The Brutalist; Timothée Chalamet, A Complete Unknown; Coman Domingo, Sing Sing; Ralph Fiennes, Conclave; Sebastian Stan, The Apprentice
Should win: Timothée Chalamet
Reasoning: Much can go wrong when a young actor attempts to embody a pop culture icon. The difficulties increase when that icon is notoriously reclusive. Still, Chalamet did an incredible job capturing the spirit of youthful Bob Dylan. His reading has the appropriate swagger and rebellion, yet Dylan’s poetic side shines as well. Also, he sang the Dylan songs with all the passion of the artist himself. This category is loaded, so the prospect of anyone losing is sad, but Chalamet is sublime.
Will win: Adrien Brody
Reasoning: Sebastian Stan didn’t receive a Screen Actors Guild nomination in this category, and the largest branch of the Academy is acting. That makes Stan an also-ran. Of the remaining four, Brody took top honors at both the Critics Choice Awards and Golden Globes, but Chalamet was lauded by the Screen Actors Guild. That makes this category the toughest of all. I’m betting, Brody will squeak it out, but my confidence is low.
BEST DIRECTOR
The nominees: Sean Baker, Anora; Brady Corbet, The Brutalist; James Mangold, A Complete Unknown; Jacques Audiard, Emilia Pérez; Coralie Fargeat, The Substance
Should win: Sean Baker, Anora
Reasoning: Although my favorite of the films represented by best director nominees is A Complete Unknown, Baker’s Anora has a unique flair that makes it unquestionably his. The story of a low-income erotic dancer who believes she’s found an escape from the slums is, at turns, funny, dramatic and achingly somber. It is a beautiful movie, and Baker (who also wrote the screenplay) transitions seamlessly between the shifting moods. The cast has a lot to do with the movie’s success, but I don’t think Anora gels without Baker at the helm.
Will win: Sean Baker, Anora
Reasoning: Most often, the award for best director goes to the person who helmed best picture. Not only do I expect voters to pick my favorite here, there’s a reasonable shot Anora gets the big prize as well.
BEST PICTURE
The nominees: Anora; The Brutalist; A Complete Unknown; Conclave; Dune: Part Two; Emilia Pérez; I’m Still Here; Nickel Boys; The Substance; Wicked
Should win: Wicked
Reasoning: Despite thematic elements that are as relevant today as when Gregory Maguire published his novel in 1995, Wicked seems too mainstream for voters who lean into prestige. That said, the movie has it all. The source material has gone from literary sensation to Broadway hit to cinematic smash for a reason, and the transition from theater to film is as good as it gets. Wonderful acting? Check. Beautifully choreographed musical numbers? Check. Incredible world building? Check. Director Jon M. Chu has crafted a film for the ages. It is joyful, prophetic and politically meaningful.
Will win: Anora
Reasoning: Historically, a best picture nominee that was not also nominated for directing is unlikely to win. Cut the films that didn’t get directing nominations, and this field is narrowed to five. Eliminate The Substance because science fiction/horror movies rarely win, and eliminate Emilia Pérez because of the ongoing controversy, and you have three serious contenders. Traditionally, guild awards are the best “tells” in determining who wins. The fact that The Brutalist did not even get a Screen Actors Guild nomination for best ensemble tells me it’s a longshot. Since the producers and directors guilds demonstrated love for Anora, that’s where the smart money goes.
Author Bio:
Forrest Hartman is Highbrow Magazine’s chief film critic.
For Highbrow Magazine